Wet weather holds off for Christmas Eve bonfires, but threat of ...

The threat of wet weather fouling up Papa Noel's bonfires along the Mississippi River levees in Louisiana on Christmas Eve has abated, according to the Slidell office of the National Weather Service. But there's still a good chance of severe weather, even tornadoes, for Christmas Day, according to forecasters.

"Precipitation is not expected to be an issue for the early evening hours along the levees of the Mississippi River for the bonfires that many municipalities are holding," said the weather service's Monday afternoon forecast.

But conditions remain in place for a significant outbreak of severe weather across the area on Christmas Day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. That's the result of a complex series of meteorological processes, including an upper air low that will drop out of the Rocky Mountains Monday night, even as a cold front that is struggling to move south through the area this afternoon makes a u-turn as a warm front.

That warm front will have moved north, leaving the atmosphere over the New Orleans area warm and wet. Upper air windshear should build during the day, increasing the risk of development of major thunderstorms.

"Basic scenario will be development of a squall line in advance of the upper vort max ( meteorologist slang for an upper area of rapidly moving air), with discrete supercells (strong thunderstorms) in advance of the line carrying the potential for long track tornadoes," said the forecast. While the biggest threat is from 3 p.m to 10 p.m. Tuesday, the chance of severe weather could begin as early as 3 a.m., and occur at any time during daylight and early evening hours, the forecast said.

The rough weather will be followed by plummeting temperatures, with below freezing lows likely throughout the area by Thursday morning, though no freeze warnings are anticipated.
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Source: http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2012/12/wet_weather_holds_off_for_chri.html

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